Interesting insights into the Afghanistan government's (AKA The Taliban) successful ban on opium production. William Byrd [
Link to article] writing at The United States Institute of Peace [
About] says "
The ban is not a counter-narcotics victory and will have negative economic and humanitarian consequences, potentially leading to a refugee crisis."
This isn't the first time; the previous successful ban was in 2000/01 (and we all know what
happened just afterwards and Helmand is 'by far Afghanistan's largest opium-producing province'...complete coincidence though).
Banning opium production sounds like it is a noble cause right, especially as "Unlike the Taliban's previous opium ban, the current ban encompasses trade and processing of opiates, not just poppy cultivation." BUT the cultivated and harvest bumper crop from last year is not only exempted from destruction but also the trade of it can carry on. That said it does mean they are aware that bankrupting much of the rural population isn't a good thing either, so again, they've learnt from last time!
Also, the noble cause is further tainted by the possibility that it is an economic ruse to restrict supply to allow the market price to rise and they can cash in on their large stock (super simplified and not wholly accurate, as discussed in links below).
The article sheds more light on the whole situation and is definitely worth a read, with many references and info from David Mansfield
reports at Alcis, ("
Truly Unprecedented") and the Chapter '
Repositioning a Pariah Regime' from Mansfield's book
A State Built on Sand is excellent [
PDF]
The war/s, COVID crises and intermittently closed borders cause -and have caused- much hardship over the years (you don't say) and 'although numerous eradication programmes have been underway for several years' (from picture link), Afghanistan has continued to be the world's main producer of opium (over 80% of total), so any ban is very likely to be temporary...ahem.
