Oncoming oppression III...

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...or is it IV, or XV?! *

Image credit Imperial War Museums [LINK]
Ministerio de Propaganda

If you tolerate this, Then your children will be next [MSP Lyrics] ...but it's already too late, your children - or at the latest their children - will be dead or slaves. Not about WWIII the West is trying to start, not about Madrid (Spanish Civil War) but certainly involving multiple equivalents of the Ministerio de Propaganda. 

What am I on about? Just yesterday YouGov (yeah yeah, know who they are and what they are...and polls suck, but hey-ho) released a poll; it coincides with the highly suspicious controlled release of Government Tweets during the pandemic, nudging us towards blaming just a few crass 'incompetents' for two years of of totalitarian oppression and gross negligence that caused multiple thousands of deaths (probably millions worldwide, and certainly more than any virus).

The poll: "In hindsight, thinking about the government's handling of the Covid‑19 outbreak, do you think their approach was generally...?"

Now, one would think, especially now with all the information that is openly being reported [facts that many - mostly unjabbed - had, by complete coincidence, or magic, or something, knew years ago] would mean that anybody even remotely lucid would say, with absolutely no doubt whatsoever, that the government's handling was absolutely and utterly bat-shit (see what I did there?) crazy; high-handed jack-booted face-punchingly fucked up crazy... 

...you'd be wrong. Thirty seven percent (37%!!!) of all adults thought the government wasn't strict enough. 

There are several break-downs of the full numbers: gender, age, region, politics and social grade.  For the most part it is similarly split: in 'Politics' no surprise the lefty liberal fuckwits wanted harder lockdown, as did Remainers. In gender, males were slightly higher than females in 'Too strict', and fewer males were 'Don't knows'; similar to females in the lower social grade: they too were higher 'Too strict' and fewer 'Don't knows'. 

BUT, the major tell, the point of this post, and the highest number throughout the poll: in the Age section (see table below): over half (51%) of 18-24 year olds thought the government's approach was 'Not strict enough'. We're fucked. They are doomed.

 

* Previous posts: Oncoming oppression, Oncoming oppression II although - rather embarrassingly - I note I used those same two titles before: the first in 2008 and 2009, and the second in 2011: several pages of Oppression posts HERE, no surprise that many are in last last three years.

Overall obluctation options...

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Guido has posted a graph from Lord Ashcroft Polls with the "rough breakdown from [the graph he posts] is that half the Brexit Party’s voters came from the Tories, quarter from Labour. Labour also haemorrhaged votes to the Greens and LibDems. Problems for both Labour and the Tories look daunting."



I happen to think the bottom graph (see image below or scroll right down on the Ashcroft link) is far more interesting: Lord Ashcroft has "surveyed over 10,000 voters to ask how they voted, why they chose the party they did, and – at least as of this weekend – what they see themselves doing at the next general election"

"Overall, only 43% of 2017 Conservative voters who turned out in the European elections say they will vote Tory at the next general election."... ..."Half of Labour-Brexit Party switchers said they expected to stay with their new party at the next general election, with only just a quarter saying they expect to go back to Labour."

If this is anywhere near acurate we're going to have to get used to Coalition government. However, I expect one or two more bombshells before that happens but the fact that The Brexit Party is already on par with LIB/LAB/CON is amazing.

Overall obluctation options...

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Guido has posted a graph from Lord Ashcroft Polls with the "rough breakdown from [the graph he posts] is that half the Brexit Party’s voters came from the Tories, quarter from Labour. Labour also haemorrhaged votes to the Greens and LibDems. Problems for both Labour and the Tories look daunting."

I happen to think the bottom graph (see image below or scroll right down on the Ashcroft link) is far more interesting: Lord Ashcroft has "surveyed over 10,000 voters to ask how they voted, why they chose the party they did, and – at least as of this weekend – what they see themselves doing at the next general election"

"Overall, only 43% of 2017 Conservative voters who turned out in the European elections say they will vote Tory at the next general election."... ..."Half of Labour-Brexit Party switchers said they expected to stay with their new party at the next general election, with only just a quarter saying they expect to go back to Labour."

If this is anywhere near acurate we're going to have to get used to Coalition government. However, I expect one or two more bombshells before that happens but the fact that The Brexit Party is already on par with LIB/LAB/CON is amazing.

Optophobia over oncoming omnishambles...

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i.e. scared to look at the political earthquake that is coming. Numbers are amazing, hopefully the actual results will be even more so. Anyhoo...



Good piece at CapX from Matt Singh: "The polls point towards a dramatic realignment. Are they right?" "Two of the three latest polls have shown the major parties’ combined share dropping below 50 per cent... ...This is extreme by historical standards – the only precedent came at the height of the SDP search after the Crosby by-election in 1981, when the equivalent number was 46.5 per cent. That aside, there hasn’t been anything comparable to this level of fragmentation in Britain since polling began 80 years ago."

 

The polls point towards a dramatic realignment: Matt Singh on CapX

I disagree on one thing in Matt's excellent article: "However, the Liberal Democrats are also picking up votes... While it can be debated whether these gains are solely due to Brexit, it is clear that the movement is not solely on the Leave side." Hmmm, I wouldn't mind betting that the LD gains are where there is not another 'protest vote' available and people put their 'x' by LD because they aren't CON or LAB. And of course we all know the polling accuracy of recent years hasn't exactly been much to crow about.

Optophobia over oncoming omnishambles...

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i.e. scared to look at the political earthquake that is coming. Numbers are amazing, hopefully the actual results will be even more so. Anyhoo...

Good piece at CapX from Matt Singh: "The polls point towards a dramatic realignment. Are they right?" "Two of the three latest polls have shown the major parties’ combined share dropping below 50 per cent... ...This is extreme by historical standards – the only precedent came at the height of the SDP search after the Crosby by-election in 1981, when the equivalent number was 46.5 per cent. That aside, there hasn’t been anything comparable to this level of fragmentation in Britain since polling began 80 years ago."
 

The polls point towards a dramatic realignment: Matt Singh on CapX

I disagree on one thing in Matt's excellent article: "However, the Liberal Democrats are also picking up votes... While it can be debated whether these gains are solely due to Brexit, it is clear that the movement is not solely on the Leave side." Hmmm, I wouldn't mind betting that the LD gains are where there is not another 'protest vote' available and people put their 'x' by LD because they aren't CON or LAB. And of course we all know the polling accuracy of recent years hasn't exactly been much to crow about.

Only Oldies II...

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Only Oldies gets a re-run. 'With age comes wisdom' and looking at that very straight angle from 18-24 year-old group who voted Conservative up to the same line in the 65+ age group gives truth to the old saying: older people generally have far greater knowledge and definitely more experience which usually means they make better decisions, no-doubt-about-it. Look at almost the exact opposite on the Brexit vote. Both images from Lord Ashcroft Polls: on the left the voting by demographic in this weeks UK General Election ("How did this result happen?") and the image on the right the polling data from the Brexit Referendum.



In the General Election "More than half (57%) of those who voted Labour made their decision in the last month, and more than a quarter (26%) in “the last few days". No surprise given the unbelievably poor campaign by the Conservatives and the desperately weak Conservative (in name only!) manifesto. But...how very odd but also interesting - and a little surprising given Jeremy Corbyn promised a better Brexit (UK Independence from the EU) than Theresa May - that the same younger age groups that voted Remain, also voted for Labour. Cognitive dissonance?

Only Oldies II...

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Only Oldies gets a re-run. 'With age comes wisdom' and looking at that very straight angle from 18-24 year-old group who voted Conservative up to the same line in the 65+ age group gives truth to the old saying: older people generally have far greater knowledge and definitely more experience which usually means they make better decisions, no-doubt-about-it. Look at almost the exact opposite on the Brexit vote. Both images from Lord Ashcroft Polls: on the left the voting by demographic in this weeks UK General Election ("How did this result happen?") and the image on the right the polling data from the Brexit Referendum.

In the General Election "More than half (57%) of those who voted Labour made their decision in the last month, and more than a quarter (26%) in “the last few days". No surprise given the unbelievably poor campaign by the Conservatives and the desperately weak Conservative (in name only!) manifesto. But...how very odd but also interesting - and a little surprising given Jeremy Corbyn promised a better Brexit (UK Independence from the EU) than Theresa May - that the same younger age groups that voted Remain, also voted for Labour. Cognitive dissonance?

Opinium over others...

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...again. And this time at least they were on the right side along with TNS. Most of the others may need to rethink their employment. Mike Smithson at Political Betting early afternoon yesterday posted the final polling table below: "Once the final polls came our I wrote that if LEAVE did it it would be as big a polling disaster as GE2015. In fact then none of the final polls were in range. At least this time two of them, TNS and Opinium, got very close and were showing LEAVE leads."

As it is, the UK has voted for BREXIT - to leave the EU - by 52% to 48% (51.9 to 48.1). Turnout was 72% overall, 73% in England. Leave won the majority of votes in England (Leave 53.4% 15,188,406 votes to Remain's 46.6% 13,266,996 votes) and Wales (Leave 52.5% 854,572 votes to Remain 47.5% 772,347 votes). Northern Ireland Remain won (44.2%, 349,442 votes to 55.8% 440,437 votes); while Scotland seemed to mirror the GE numbers with Remain majorities in all areas (Leave 38.0% 1,018,322 votes to Remain 62.0% 1,661,191)

Opinium over others...

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...again. And this time at least they were on the right side along with TNS. Most of the others may need to rethink their employment. Mike Smithson at Political Betting early afternoon yesterday posted the final polling table below: "Once the final polls came our I wrote that if LEAVE did it it would be as big a polling disaster as GE2015. In fact then none of the final polls were in range. At least this time two of them, TNS and Opinium, got very close and were showing LEAVE leads."

As it is, the UK has voted for BREXIT - to leave the EU - by 52% to 48% (51.9 to 48.1). Turnout was 72% overall, 73% in England. Leave won the majority of votes in England (Leave 53.4% 15,188,406 votes to Remain's 46.6% 13,266,996 votes) and Wales (Leave 52.5% 854,572 votes to Remain 47.5% 772,347 votes). Northern Ireland Remain won (44.2%, 349,442 votes to 55.8% 440,437 votes); while Scotland seemed to mirror the GE numbers with Remain majorities in all areas (Leave 38.0% 1,018,322 votes to Remain 62.0% 1,661,191)

Optimistic online outlook...

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The vote to Leave or Remain in the EU is hotting up. Interestingly the betters seem to have the Remain side winning easily (you'd think so with the with 99% of the Establishment plus the illegal use of tons of public and EU money AND every failed politician under the sun pushing that way) and most telephone polls also have Remain ahead. Strangely, when looking solely at online polls a completely different picture emerges: click on the picture to enlarge. Scrolling through the Political Betting blog you'll see most pointing towards a Remain win, including THIS craziness. However, online would be more anonymous and as we have seen before many people when polled are loathe to give their true thoughts; I think this is a very positive sign; things are hotting up but things are certainly not decided, either way. By the way, don't forget to Vote LEAVE!

Optimistic online outlook...

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The vote to Leave or Remain in the EU is hotting up. Interestingly the betters seem to have the Remain side winning easily (you'd think so with the with 99% of the Establishment plus the illegal use of tons of public and EU money AND every failed politician under the sun pushing that way) and most telephone polls also have Remain ahead. Strangely, when looking solely at online polls a completely different picture emerges: click on the picture to enlarge. Scrolling through the Political Betting blog you'll see most pointing towards a Remain win, including THIS craziness. However, online would be more anonymous and as we have seen before many people when polled are loathe to give their true thoughts; I think this is a very positive sign; things are hotting up but things are certainly not decided, either way. By the way, don't forget to Vote LEAVE!

Only one outlier...

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Interesting stuff: How Britain voted on May 7th – the Ipsos MORI guide (click image to enlarge but better to see it HERE at Political Betting unless you're eagle-eyed). Not much we didn't already know/ suspect; personally I find it odd that 65% of BME still voted Labour although this is lower than in 2010 when they got 68% (and this was down from much higher historical levels: see conclusions in Runnymede Trust PDF also re 2010); presumably another reason for New Labour's disgraceful, cynical and probably treasonous immigration policy (MW briefing paper) [yes, I know the Coalition did nothing to reverse it].



This time the Conservatives increased their share of the BME vote: maybe just a result of the collapse of the Lib Dem vote...[edit] more info HERE re BME split: black and minority ethnic identifying as Christians plus Muslims preferring Labour but Hindus and Sikhs preferring the Conservatives to Labour, again IMHO, no real surprise.



Also, back to the PB link: "Meanwhile the British Polling Council has announced details of its inquiry into what went wrong with the polls." Could the EU IN/OUT polls be equally flawed?

Only one outlier...

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Interesting stuff: How Britain voted on May 7th – the Ipsos MORI guide (click image to enlarge but better to see it HERE at Political Betting unless you're eagle-eyed). Not much we didn't already know/ suspect; personally I find it odd that 65% of BME still voted Labour although this is lower than in 2010 when they got 68% (and this was down from much higher historical levels: see conclusions in Runnymede Trust PDF also re 2010); presumably another reason for New Labour's disgraceful, cynical and probably treasonous immigration policy (MW briefing paper) [yes, I know the Coalition did nothing to reverse it].

This time the Conservatives increased their share of the BME vote: maybe just a result of the collapse of the Lib Dem vote...[edit] more info HERE re BME split: black and minority ethnic identifying as Christians plus Muslims preferring Labour but Hindus and Sikhs preferring the Conservatives to Labour, again IMHO, no real surprise.

Also, back to the PB link: "Meanwhile the British Polling Council has announced details of its inquiry into what went wrong with the polls." Could the EU IN/OUT polls be equally flawed?

Olamic obduracy...

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You have been warned, again. New Labour ruined the economy, set the country on course for disaster; took away more rights than ever before; generally the worst government ever...and yet that red donkey in a rosette is still a truism isn't it (and certainly true in some places)? Please, I am genuinely gob-smacked - when it is clear that even his own party can stand him - just how the FUCK can 29% prefer Ed Miliband as Prime Minister? Hat-tip: Political Betting, Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls ("polled more than 26,000 voters in 26 constituencies that will be among the most closely contested between the Conservatives and Labour at the next general election").

"Across the battleground I found a 6.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour – enough to topple 83 Tory MPs and give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority."

See pie chart: 5% sure, 10 maybe, at a push...but 29%?



Update: (off on a tangent) oh well, putting that in perspective, in critically troubled Venezuela [edit] Nike Nick Ripe (Krusty II) is down to 37%!

Olamic obduracy...

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You have been warned, again. New Labour ruined the economy, set the country on course for disaster; took away more rights than ever before; generally the worst government ever...and yet that red donkey in a rosette is still a truism isn't it (and certainly true in some places)? Please, I am genuinely gob-smacked - when it is clear that even his own party can stand him - just how the FUCK can 29% prefer Ed Miliband as Prime Minister? Hat-tip: Political Betting, Source: Lord Ashcroft Polls ("polled more than 26,000 voters in 26 constituencies that will be among the most closely contested between the Conservatives and Labour at the next general election").

"Across the battleground I found a 6.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour – enough to topple 83 Tory MPs and give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority."

See pie chart: 5% sure, 10 maybe, at a push...but 29%?

Update: (off on a tangent) oh well, putting that in perspective, in critically troubled Venezuela [edit] Nike Nick Ripe (Krusty II) is down to 37%!

OMG V...

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I know there's a year and a half to go but based on current polling:

Please people...WAKE UP! In the UK's crazy rotten borough system just this 6% lead to Labour would give them a 130 seat majority! You know it's unfair: 2005 Tony Blair 35% of votes = 355 seats; 2010 David Cameron 36% of a higher turn-out = 306 seats. Updated Sat 8 a.m.: OK, OK, I missed this yesterday but it would still lead to a massive working majority for Labour!

OMG V...

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I know there's a year and a half to go but based on current polling:

Please people...WAKE UP! In the UK's crazy rotten borough system just this 6% lead to Labour would give them a 130 seat majority! You know it's unfair: 2005 Tony Blair 35% of votes = 355 seats; 2010 David Cameron 36% of a higher turn-out = 306 seats. Updated Sat 8 a.m.: OK, OK, I missed this yesterday but it would still lead to a massive working majority for Labour!

Opposition opportunities...

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[LINK] Wow, just wow. It is sure to hold for the European elections in 2014, and by then we will presumably have other indicators as to whether it will hold for the General Election 2015...

Opposition opportunities...

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[LINK] Wow, just wow. It is sure to hold for the European elections in 2014, and by then we will presumably have other indicators as to whether it will hold for the General Election 2015...

Observing oddities III...

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Nothing much to say about the local elections except perhaps I was very surprised that the 'council' country is still largely black and blue. The South Shields by-election however had a few interesting points: hardly a surprise that Labour won: with only one non-Labour MP since 1929 and no Conservative EVER it was a foregone conclusion. They say turn-out was low but that doesn't tell the whole story: it was 39% turnout but actual real people visiting the polling booth was a mere 25%: postal votes boosted the turnout massively: 58% of the total vote were postal votes! I have called the graph double dip because Labour polled just over double UKIP (2nd) who polled just over double Conservative (3rd) who polled just over double Ahmed Khan (Independent, 4th) who polled just under double the votes of Independent Socialist (5th) and BNP (6th) who polled just over double the Lib Dems (7th)...