Observing obedience...

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Hot on the heels of the realisation that there is no correlation between levels of funding and pupil performance, we see too that there is no correlation between police numbers and levels of crime. Raedwald thinks 'the buggers are putting bromide in the tea or something' (hat-tip and image, click to enlarge). I used to question the numbers under New Labour, fiddling stats etc., and now I question them under the Coalition - playing with numbers - but it is definitely happening and some of the reductions are marked: "In fact, almost every category of criminality that you can think of is declining. Here is the even better news. This is not a blip. The downward trend is now very well established and can be traced back over many years." says Andrew Rawnsley, writing about this 'crime mystery' in today's' Observer.



It is similar in the US (no, really! since the 1990s); it's going down, but no one really knows why although a number of theories are espoused.

I think the lead in petrol hypothesis a bit weak, and no doubt the real reason is a blend of several complex issues that I am ignorant of but my own personal theory is the 'equalisation' of everyone: we don't have everything we want but we are more than comfortable; I am over-generalising grossly but everyone has a 'flash' TV, everyone has a smart phone and everyone has access to the Internet and there are now so many TV channels. Added to which barely anybody in the West is really in poverty or starving so what happens? We can't be bothered, we don't 'need' to steal; the only ones committing crime are the sickos who always will, no matter what, or those from a not-so-developed country/culture that they haven't been 'equalised' yet.

Observing obedience...

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Hot on the heels of the realisation that there is no correlation between levels of funding and pupil performance, we see too that there is no correlation between police numbers and levels of crime. Raedwald thinks 'the buggers are putting bromide in the tea or something' (hat-tip and image, click to enlarge). I used to question the numbers under New Labour, fiddling stats etc., and now I question them under the Coalition - playing with numbers - but it is definitely happening and some of the reductions are marked: "In fact, almost every category of criminality that you can think of is declining. Here is the even better news. This is not a blip. The downward trend is now very well established and can be traced back over many years." says Andrew Rawnsley, writing about this 'crime mystery' in today's' Observer.

It is similar in the US (no, really! since the 1990s); it's going down, but no one really knows why although a number of theories are espoused. I think the lead in petrol hypothesis a bit weak, and no doubt the real reason is a blend of several complex issues that I am ignorant of but my own personal theory is the 'equalisation' of everyone: we don't have everything we want but we are more than comfortable; I am over-generalising grossly but everyone has a 'flash' TV, everyone has a smart phone and everyone has access to the Internet and there are now so many TV channels. Added to which barely anybody in the West is really in poverty or starving so what happens? We can't be bothered, we don't 'need' to steal; the only ones committing crime are the sickos who always will, no matter what, or those from a not-so-developed country/culture that they haven't been 'equalised' yet.

Obvallated overspend...

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"...But what didn't matter was money. No matter which way you looked at it, ‘the level of funding, per se, is almost irrelevant as a predictor or performance", Fraser Nelson in The Spectator on education spending. The UK Department for Education asked Deloitte to study the pupil database factoring in a number of variables: exam results, postcode, ethnicity, poverty...and spending.



What Fraser says is clear: from the report (pdf), Insight 4: "there is no correlation between levels of funding and pupil performance"...oops!

Obvallated overspend...

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"...But what didn't matter was money. No matter which way you looked at it, ‘the level of funding, per se, is almost irrelevant as a predictor or performance", Fraser Nelson in The Spectator on education spending. The UK Department for Education asked Deloitte to study the pupil database factoring in a number of variables: exam results, postcode, ethnicity, poverty...and spending.

What Fraser says is clear: from the report (pdf), Insight 4: "there is no correlation between levels of funding and pupil performance"...oops!

Ousting ocracy...

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Things are heating up in Venezuela: now it isn't a case of 'We want a recount!', it has turned into "You stole the election!". [English] [Spanish]. The Electoral Commission has now dis-guarded even a pretence of being unbiased (and they still insist any vote audit - whenever they finally decide to say it might be - won't affect the election outcome!) and last night the fast-losing-any-credibility government decided to interrupt the broadcast: just as Capriles challenged the government his speech was interrupted by mandatory government broadcasting on all TV and radio networks! As Daniel says, "a cadena is the forced commandeering by the state of ALL TV AND RADIO STATIONS for a simultaneous broadcast". Why would this happen...well some may say that certain people need a Chavista to maintain power...and the Cubans in Venezuela that supervise many government offices and agencies, plus law enforcement, intelligence and military may have something to do with it. Just saying; HCR better watch his back...

Ousting ocracy...

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Things are heating up in Venezuela: now it isn't a case of 'We want a recount!', it has turned into "You stole the election!". [English] [Spanish]. The Electoral Commission has now dis-guarded even a pretence of being unbiased (and they still insist any vote audit - whenever they finally decide to say it might be - won't affect the election outcome!) and last night the fast-losing-any-credibility government decided to interrupt the broadcast: just as Capriles challenged the government his speech was interrupted by mandatory government broadcasting on all TV and radio networks! As Daniel says, "a cadena is the forced commandeering by the state of ALL TV AND RADIO STATIONS for a simultaneous broadcast". Why would this happen...well some may say that certain people need a Chavista to maintain power...and the Cubans in Venezuela that supervise many government offices and agencies, plus law enforcement, intelligence and military may have something to do with it. Just saying; HCR better watch his back...

Omission, omission, omission III...

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[Edited: 'dead' video/image removed]
Once again the BBC have been caught not quite telling you everything: in the same way they won't tell you why UK credit rating is downgraded (not cutting enough/borrowing too much) or about EU budget fraud may being more than 4 BILLION quid [Craig & Sue] they now proclaim there is "No indication of huge Romanian-Bulgarian influx" [Link]. Guido highlights what the tiny percentages really could mean. What 'just' 4.2% of Bulgarians and 1% of Romanians making definite plans to come to Britain in 2013 or 2014 translates to is 0.4 of a million new immigrants. Remember how we were told in 2004 the "UK Home Office expects between 5,000 and 13,000 migrants per year from new member states." hahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa....New Labour willfully misinterpreting the 2003 report [pdf]



Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migration Watch UK said this week: "Numbers suggested on the scale by this [BBC] survey would make it impossible for the Government to sustain their target of tens of thousands, assuming they reach it by the end of the parliament."

Omission, omission, omission III...

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[Edited: 'dead' video/image removed] Once again the BBC have been caught not quite telling you everything: in the same way they won't tell you why UK credit rating is downgraded (not cutting enough/borrowing too much) or about EU budget fraud may being more than 4 BILLION quid [Craig & Sue] they now proclaim there is "No indication of huge Romanian-Bulgarian influx" [Link]. Guido highlights what the tiny percentages really could mean. What 'just' 4.2% of Bulgarians and 1% of Romanians making definite plans to come to Britain in 2013 or 2014 translates to is 0.4 of a million new immigrants. Remember how we were told in 2004 the "UK Home Office expects between 5,000 and 13,000 migrants per year from new member states." hahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa....New Labour willfully misinterpreting the 2003 report [pdf]

Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migration Watch UK said this week: "Numbers suggested on the scale by this [BBC] survey would make it impossible for the Government to sustain their target of tens of thousands, assuming they reach it by the end of the parliament."

Omission, omission, omission III...

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Once again the BBC have been caught not quite telling you everything: in the same way they won't tell you why UK credit rating is downgraded (not cutting enough/borrowing too much) or about EU budget fraud may being more than 4 BILLION quid [Craig & Sue] they now proclaim there is "No indication of huge Romanian-Bulgarian influx" [Link]. Guido highlights what the tiny percentages really could mean. What 'just' 4.2% of Bulgarians and 1% of Romanians making definite plans to come to Britain in 2013 or 2014 translates to is 0.4 of a million new immigrants. Remember how we were told in 2004 the "UK Home Office expects between 5,000 and 13,000 migrants per year from new member states." hahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa....New Labour willfully misinterpreting the 2003 report [pdf]

Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migration Watch UK said this week: "Numbers suggested on the scale by this [BBC] survey would make it impossible for the Government to sustain their target of tens of thousands, assuming they reach it by the end of the parliament."

Oggi, oggi, oggi...

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Happy St. George's Day...and isn't it a fine one! A day when, for centuries, the English celebrated as 'a major feast and national holiday...on a par with Christmas'.  With the forming of the Union this began to fade; celebrations were non existent or subdued but recently - with state recognition and self-determination being the flavour of the moment - are more numerous and growing.  Today is also a good day to live and die; no, I'm not getting all Dharmic or Druid, it's just 23rd April has become a symbolic date for world literature with so many authors, writers, poets etc dying or born on this day (or both in the Bard's case); certainly a touch of Osiris or an Ouroboros about it. Be good; dragon beware...

Oggi, oggi, oggi...

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Happy St. George's Day...and isn't it a fine one! A day when, for centuries, the English celebrated as 'a major feast and national holiday...on a par with Christmas'.  With the forming of the Union this began to fade; celebrations were non existent or subdued but recently - with state recognition and self-determination being the flavour of the moment - are more numerous and growing.  Today is also a good day to live and die; no, I'm not getting all Dharmic or Druid, it's just 23rd April has become a symbolic date for world literature with so many authors, writers, poets etc dying or born on this day (or both in the Bard's case); certainly a touch of Osiris or an Ouroboros about it. Be good; dragon beware...

Orinoco obambulation II...

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New Krusty by a whisker, incredible when you look at the ballot paper; but Capriles rejects the results as long as all votes are not counted [El Universal] and I am hearing that the international votes aren't fully counted (generally very anti Chavismo...also it doesn't help that they are finding ballot papers thrown in the rubbish strewn along the roadside in Barinas, Chavez's birth state and where brother Adan Chavez Frias is the governor (he was Minister of Education: those ominous overtones red education); Krusty's father Hugo de los Reyes Chavez was the previous governor and Aníbal Jose Chavez is the current mayor of major town Sabaneta, Barinas).



P.S. Worth reading how one-sided things are HERE ([edited] makes that the result was so close even more incredible).



P.P.S. More sinister still (also from Alek Boyd) they - well, the Vice-president, Chavez's son-in-law - CUT all internet in Venezuela for 45 minutes "to prevent further hacks"!

Orinoco obambulation II...

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New Krusty by a whisker, incredible when you look at the ballot paper; but Capriles rejects the results as long as all votes are not counted [El Universal] and I am hearing that the international votes aren't fully counted (generally very anti Chavismo...also it doesn't help that they are finding ballot papers thrown in the rubbish strewn along the roadside in Barinas, Chavez's birth state and where brother Adan Chavez Frias is the governor (he was Minister of Education: those ominous overtones red education); Krusty's father Hugo de los Reyes Chavez was the previous governor and Aníbal Jose Chavez is the current mayor of major town Sabaneta, Barinas).

P.S. Worth reading how one-sided things are HERE ([edited] makes that the result was so close even more incredible).

P.P.S. More sinister still (also from Alek Boyd) they - well, the Vice-president, Chavez's son-in-law - CUT all internet in Venezuela for 45 minutes "to prevent further hacks"!

R.I.P. Baroness Thatcher...

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Margaret Thatcher (1925-2013). Here are 'some memorable moments and sayings from a remarkable life'; certainly one that shaped young Ows' life and future and I have tears in my eyes as I write this: funnily enough one of the moments I remember most clearly was listening to the BBC World Service telling us in late November 1990 how she had decided to withdraw her candidacy from the 2nd Conservative leadership ballot; she had easily won the 1st ballot but failed to gain the necessary 'new contest rules' 15% winning-margin by 1% (one percent: 4 votes; there were 16 abstentions...). I will probably refrain from forum's for a bit...probably. Please visit the The Margaret Thatcher Foundation." By complete coincidence I find myself next to Grantham... 

R.I.P. Baroness Thatcher...

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Margaret Thatcher (1925-2013). Here are 'some memorable moments and sayings from a remarkable life'; certainly one that shaped young Ows' life and future and I have tears in my eyes as I write this: funnily enough one of the moments I remember most clearly was listening to the BBC World Service telling us in late November 1990 how she had decided to withdraw her candidacy from the 2nd Conservative leadership ballot; she had easily won the 1st ballot but failed to gain the necessary 'new contest rules' 15% winning-margin by 1% (one percent: 4 votes; there were 16 abstentions...). I will probably refrain from forum's for a bit...probably. Please visit the The Margaret Thatcher Foundation." By complete coincidence I find myself next to Grantham... 

Objurgation of Osborne...

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...but he's right. The real debate begins...again! Some tried make political gain over the death of children recently by claiming that George Osborne was trying to make political gain (many thought so but as usual they didn't read what he said or how he said it and in answer to a specific question, they just immediately believe 'accusations')...if you see what I mean.



Today we get 'Northern Labour leftie talks sense shock!'; Simon Danczuk (Labour MP for Rochdale) in today's DT. Added to Harpie's straight-faced (hilarious) 'epiphany' over the weekend it seems Labour have realised the danger of them losing the Welfare debate!




And there's definitely someone who has benefited from doing nothing recently!

Objurgation of Osborne...

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...but he's right. The real debate begins...again! Some tried make political gain over the death of children recently by claiming that George Osborne was trying to make political gain (many thought so but as usual they didn't read what he said or how he said it and in answer to a specific question, they just immediately believe 'accusations')...if you see what I mean.

Today we get 'Northern Labour leftie talks sense shock!'; Simon Danczuk (Labour MP for Rochdale) in today's DT. Added to Harpie's straight-faced (hilarious) 'epiphany' over the weekend it seems Labour have realised the danger of them losing the Welfare debate!

And there's definitely someone who has benefited from doing nothing recently!

Osborne's opportunity...

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As usual we are told what a politician will say in the future. This New Labour habit hasn't gone away: is it media management mayhem or Media managing ministers?...but I digress: what GO will say is quite important with all the welfare reform going on. "Trials will begin in four London boroughs of a £500-a-week per household benefits cap and a new Universal Credit system due to replace a raft of other benefits nationwide later this year."...500 quid...a week.



This is the new cap, hardly unfair. If those trials get anywhere near working in London then they are a dead cert for anywhere else in the UK. Now, the criticism from churches and charities and, naturally, the opposition is totally misplaced, as all they do is harp on about it being unfair because the top level of tax is being cut. I've posted the image on the left before but it's worth a good look (click to enlarge).



Update: actual speech text HERE and word-cloud (hat-tip Guido) HERE.

Osborne's opportunity...

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As usual we are told what a politician will say in the future. This New Labour habit hasn't gone away: is it media management mayhem or Media managing ministers?...but I digress: what GO will say is quite important with all the welfare reform going on. "Trials will begin in four London boroughs of a £500-a-week per household benefits cap and a new Universal Credit system due to replace a raft of other benefits nationwide later this year."...500 quid...a week.

This is the new cap, hardly unfair. If those trials get anywhere near working in London then they are a dead cert for anywhere else in the UK. Now, the criticism from churches and charities and, naturally, the opposition is totally misplaced, as all they do is harp on about it being unfair because the top level of tax is being cut. I've posted the image on the left before but it's worth a good look (click to enlarge).

Update: actual speech text HERE and word-cloud (hat-tip Guido) HERE.

Oestre opus...

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Easter weekend, what better time than to have a Christian guy say something that you really want everyone to know: in this case it really is a Christian Guy, Managing Director of the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), writing in the Spectator..."The number of households where no one had ever worked doubled under the previous Government." Christian rightly asks where was the righteous anger of the 'poverty lobby' (and their "ongoing shock-and-awe strategy") during this time?



IDS, in this massive welfare reform initiative, is attempting to address the causes, trying to rein-in the dependency culture and to "see beyond the facile argument that compassion can be defined by the size of a welfare cheque".

The meme that 'Beveridge has been betrayed' is, as it should be, cross party (but not nearly enough, political shenanigans will always trump what is right) as surely it is clear as day that the welfare state is now causing - and has been for many years the - more than one of the five 'Giant Evils' (Want, Disease, Ignorance, Squalor and Idleness) that it was developed to abate.



And for those that will immediately say that the CSJ is a just an IDS right-wing think tank then think again: "One of our key problems has been a political obsession with the idea that throwing money at a problem will solve it, regardless of how entrenched its root causes may be... ...Busting the myth that poverty is tackled solely by chasing a mainly income inequality line is a major task for the 21st century. If the government seizes this opportunity we might just get there.")




Update: Fraser has just added this piece: "Why are the left so angry about today’s welfare reform? Because its popular – and right."

Oestre opus...

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Easter weekend, what better time than to have a Christian guy say something that you really want everyone to know: in this case it really is a Christian Guy, Managing Director of the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ), writing in the Spectator..."The number of households where no one had ever worked doubled under the previous Government." Christian rightly asks where was the righteous anger of the 'poverty lobby' (and their "ongoing shock-and-awe strategy") during this time?

IDS, in this massive welfare reform initiative, is attempting to address the causes, trying to rein-in the dependency culture and to "see beyond the facile argument that compassion can be defined by the size of a welfare cheque". The meme that 'Beveridge has been betrayed' is, as it should be, cross party (but not nearly enough, political shenanigans will always trump what is right) as surely it is clear as day that the welfare state is now causing - and has been for many years the - more than one of the five 'Giant Evils' (Want, Disease, Ignorance, Squalor and Idleness) that it was developed to abate.

And for those that will immediately say that the CSJ is a just an IDS right-wing think tank then think again: "One of our key problems has been a political obsession with the idea that throwing money at a problem will solve it, regardless of how entrenched its root causes may be... ...Busting the myth that poverty is tackled solely by chasing a mainly income inequality line is a major task for the 21st century. If the government seizes this opportunity we might just get there.")

Update: Fraser has just added this piece: "Why are the left so angry about today’s welfare reform? Because its popular – and right."