Oncoming oriental 'offensive'...

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[edited] No, not an imminent attack by China - they've been doing that for decades! No, just presuming an economic onslaught from the Eastern hemisphere soon: another good graphic at The Visual Capitalist. Below it is clipped but the link has the full graphic and explanations of each quadrant and specific details. All of the countries in 80%-plus portion the high-mobility, high-recovery section - apart from Israel - are Far East/Australasia, logical in a way I guess with the westward global spread timeline. Worth noting that there will definitely be a 'lag' in the data so UK and Netherlands for instance are well behind when in reality as of this week much is opened/opening up. The numbers and data used obviously rely on the national governments for recovery rate calculations etc.

"COVID-19 has brought the world to a halt—but after months of uncertainty, it seems that the situation is slowly taking a turn for the better."... "Today's chart measures... two metrics for each country: the mobility rate and the COVID-19 recovery rate: 

Mobility Index: change in activity around workplaces, subtracting activity around residences, measured as a percentage deviation from the baseline. 

COVID-19 Recovery Rate: number of recovered cases in a country is measured as the percentage of total cases"

Oncoming oriental 'offensive'...

---

[edited] No, not an imminent attack by China - they've been doing that for decades! No, just presuming an economic onslaught from the Eastern hemisphere soon: another good graphic at The Visual Capitalist. Below it is clipped but the link has the full graphic and explanations of each quadrant and specific details. All of the countries in 80%-plus portion the high-mobility, high-recovery section - apart from Israel - are Far East/Australasia, logical in a way I guess with the westward global spread timeline. Worth noting that there will definitely be a 'lag' in the data so UK and Netherlands for instance are well behind when in reality as of this week much is opened/opening up. The numbers and data used obviously rely on the national governments for recovery rate calculations etc.

"COVID-19 has brought the world to a halt—but after months of uncertainty, it seems that the situation is slowly taking a turn for the better."... "Today's chart measures... two metrics for each country: the mobility rate and the COVID-19 recovery rate: 
Mobility Index: change in activity around workplaces, subtracting activity around residences, measured as a percentage deviation from the baseline. 
COVID-19 Recovery Rate: number of recovered cases in a country is measured as the percentage of total cases"

Oval Office online order...

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"President Trump, joined by United States Attorney General
William Barr, signed an Executive Order on Preventing Online Censorship May 28, 2020"

Yesterday in the Oval Office, amongst other things, President Trump signed this Executive Order to fight online censorship by technology corporations, including social media platforms (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube...he's looking at you). Everyone I know has various examples but here is a list of many that was linked with this news.



Although this is a good start - and definitely addresses an overt wrong - I hope it doesn't morph into something more sinister.



Update: That said, could it be "Bluster", a warning? A "shot across the bows"? [LINK]

Oval Office online order...

---

"President Trump, joined by United States Attorney General William Barr, signed an Executive Order on Preventing Online Censorship May 28, 2020"

Yesterday in the Oval Office, amongst other things, President Trump signed this Executive Order to fight online censorship by technology corporations, including social media platforms (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube...he's looking at you). Everyone I know has various examples but here is a list of many that was linked with this news.

Although this is a good start - and definitely addresses an overt wrong - I hope it doesn't morph into something more sinister.

Update: That said, could it be "Bluster", a warning? A "shot across the bows"? [LINK]

Outing obsequious oriental obedientiaries...

---

This from the USA but one presumes we have the same problem in the UK and Europe:

"Professors around America have been caught selling secret research to the Chinese Communist Regime. The national media won't cover it..."

And there are more than a few! See Cabot Phillip's Twitter feed for details or easier to read in Thread Reader HERE.



In the UK our vile media is turning into the what the USA is having to put up with, think BBC = CNN and you won't be far wrong except in the UK the public are FORCED to pay for the biased BBC. Here we currently have the Remainer-run Dominic Cummings witchhunt where the bubble and blob are really freaking out: over there, Cabot writes

"We had almost zero evidence of foreign interference in our elections, and half the country freaked out. Now, we have endless evidence of foreign interference on our campuses, and no one is batting an eye."

He adds that "People on campus are afraid to question China's influence efforts for fear of being labeled xenophobic or racist." Sure, but they will also be concerned they'll lose their funding: think of similar to the Arabian Islamic paid influence in many UK and European Universties, but x 10.

Outing obsequious oriental obedientiaries...

---

This from the USA but one presumes we have the same problem in the UK and Europe:

"Professors around America have been caught selling secret research to the Chinese Communist Regime. The national media won't cover it..."

And there are more than a few! See Cabot Phillip's Twitter feed for details or easier to read in Thread Reader HERE.

In the UK our vile media is turning into the what the USA is having to put up with, think BBC = CNN and you won't be far wrong except in the UK the public are FORCED to pay for the biased BBC. Here we currently have the Remainer-run Dominic Cummings witchhunt where the bubble and blob are really freaking out: over there, Cabot writes

"We had almost zero evidence of foreign interference in our elections, and half the country freaked out. Now, we have endless evidence of foreign interference on our campuses, and no one is batting an eye."

He adds that "People on campus are afraid to question China's influence efforts for fear of being labeled xenophobic or racist." Sure, but they will also be concerned they'll lose their funding: think of similar to the Arabian Islamic paid influence in many UK and European Universties, but x 10.

Online ocracy out of order...

---

Very interesting: the image below shows that not much changes, very similar to the Brexit votes: almost entirley along political party lines. Division 47, Business of the House today. At least no Conservative jumpers this time.

[Image edited to enable seeing all the parties in the key on one page represented below the graph]

 Guido notes that "whilst MPs did not directly vote in favour of abolishing the virtual parliament, that was the effect of how they voted.

This division was, in fact, a Labour amendment to a motion of the house to try and allow a vote on whether to keep the hybrid parliament. MPs rejected the vote meaning the Government will now be able to proceed as they wish without a vote. Thus the hybrid/virtual parliament fades into the history books…"



The BBC seem to be trying to make out it's all JRM's fault but they make no mention of the resounding vote in favour of making MPs at least give the impression of earning their salaries and get back to work. "Mr Rees-Mogg had argued opposition MPs "like having a hybrid Parliament" because they were "willing to sacrifice a degree of scrutiny to stymie the government's programme."...yep. Asked re the safety aspect "We will not be returning to the crowded, bustling chamber of old," he said, adding MPs would be returning to a "safe working environment": just as well, all that shouting and bluster would mean a superspreader event in the same place every week.

Online ocracy out of order...

---

Very interesting: the image below shows that not much changes, very similar to the Brexit votes: almost entirley along political party lines. Division 47, Business of the House today. At least no Conservative jumpers this time.

[Image edited to enable seeing all the parties in the key on one page represented below the graph]

 Guido notes that "whilst MPs did not directly vote in favour of abolishing the virtual parliament, that was the effect of how they voted. This division was, in fact, a Labour amendment to a motion of the house to try and allow a vote on whether to keep the hybrid parliament. MPs rejected the vote meaning the Government will now be able to proceed as they wish without a vote. Thus the hybrid/virtual parliament fades into the history books…"

The BBC seem to be trying to make out it's all JRM's fault but they make no mention of the resounding vote in favour of making MPs at least give the impression of earning their salaries and get back to work. "Mr Rees-Mogg had argued opposition MPs "like having a hybrid Parliament" because they were "willing to sacrifice a degree of scrutiny to stymie the government's programme."...yep. Asked re the safety aspect "We will not be returning to the crowded, bustling chamber of old," he said, adding MPs would be returning to a "safe working environment": just as well, all that shouting and bluster would mean a superspreader event in the same place every week.

Options on our own organs; opt-out only...

---

Not for the first time: ten years ago we discussed the opt-out option. Now a new way to increase the level of organ donantion; Jo Swinson (remember her?) wasn't that happy back then: "An opt-out scheme would create a presumption that the state, in this case the NHS, owns you on death, unless you remember to declare otherwise, and have some system to prove you have done so, either a card, medical records, or a national database."



Well that day is now upon us, or more accurately in less than two weeks. There are exclusions (UK Gov overview) but otherwise you're living in an England with a system of deemed consent for organ donation.

So, 'compulsory donation' you say; also not new, and (over 14 years ago) even theft. This still goes on and as with the Chinese COVID numbers being suspiciously 'calculated', so with organ "donation": "A new report has concluded that figures disclosed by the Chinese Government conform almost precisely to a mathematical formula."‘systematic falsification and manipulation of official organ transplant datasets.’ [LINK]. One way or another they'll get the organs they need. Could that 'solution' be repeated...closer to home?



Monty Python springs to mind: The Meaning of Life (Part V) Live Organ Transplants, don't do it Mrs. Brown.

Options on our own organs; opt-out only...

---

Not for the first time: ten years ago we discussed the opt-out option. Now a new way to increase the level of organ donantion; Jo Swinson (remember her?) wasn't that happy back then: "An opt-out scheme would create a presumption that the state, in this case the NHS, owns you on death, unless you remember to declare otherwise, and have some system to prove you have done so, either a card, medical records, or a national database."

Well that day is now upon us, or more accurately in less than two weeks. There are exclusions (UK Gov overview) but otherwise you're living in an England with a system of deemed consent for organ donation. So, 'compulsory donation' you say; also not new, and (over 14 years ago) even theft. This still goes on and as with the Chinese COVID numbers being suspiciously 'calculated', so with organ "donation": "A new report has concluded that figures disclosed by the Chinese Government conform almost precisely to a mathematical formula."‘systematic falsification and manipulation of official organ transplant datasets.’ [LINK]. One way or another they'll get the organs they need. Could that 'solution' be repeated...closer to home?

Monty Python springs to mind: The Meaning of Life (Part V) Live Organ Transplants, don't do it Mrs. Brown.

OMG, outbreak overreaction overtly outed...

---

Just wow. Lockdown Sceptics have a code review of Professor Neil Ferguson's Model...not good, no wonder he quickly resigned and hid (lucky the affair came along to help bail him out); the comments are good!

Conclusions. All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial’s modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn’t under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one.

On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves.

Hat-tip: WUWT . More good comments.



P.S. Don't bother looking up the author Sue Denim... Sue Denim = Pseu Donym, teehee.

OMG, outbreak overreaction overtly outed...

---

Just wow. Lockdown Sceptics have a code review of Professor Neil Ferguson's Model...not good, no wonder he quickly resigned and hid (lucky the affair came along to help bail him out); the comments are good!

Conclusions. All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial’s modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn’t under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one. On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves.

Hat-tip: WUWT . More good comments.

P.S. Don't bother looking up the author Sue Denim... Sue Denim = Pseu Donym, teehee.

Ominous observations: oulier obit?...

---

Copied and pasted from Guido with no further comment [edit: except the update]:  



"10 Problems With The NHS's New Coronavirus App:"



"The NHS has bizarrely rejected the decentralised, secure and intelligently designed Apple-Google contact tracing framework in favour of a centralised approach. The decentralised approach is being taken by Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Estonia, Spain, and Ireland. It means all recent contacts will be anonymously, securely stored on your device and never centrally accessible. Guido has compiled some of the disastrous consequences the UK’s nationalised centralised NHS approach will have:



Privacy: There will be a centralised database of recent contacts of those who are infected. They claim it will be anonymised – we all know meta-data interrelates and could be connected to individuals, creating a huge honey pot for hackers.

Self-reporting: The app will work from self-reported symptoms, rather than based on a test result. This opens it to misuse by people who don’t want to go to work or kids who want to skip class.

Travel and visitors: The UK’s app won’t work when you travel overseas, unlike the decentralised apps that work together. Foreigners’ apps won’t work in the UK.
 

Northern Irish border: Ireland is using a decentralised app, which won’t interact with the UK’s centralised app, raising practical issues on the border.

Battery: The Apple-Google framework will always run in the background limiting battery usage. People could just switch off the UK’s app if they think it’s draining battery.

Legal: The proposal could break privacy laws by unnecessarily infringing on privacy, leaving it stuck in courts.

Mission creep: There is no law to prevent the Government from repurposing the app on your phone or the data they have for other purposes. It risks being misused and expanded in future.

Background: The app won’t be able to run fully in the background on iPhones or newer Androids because they aren’t using the Apple-Google framework. If two locked devices cross paths they won’t be able to send out a signal, they can only receive a signal from an unlocked device.

Non-app users: Apple and Google are planning to build their framework into the operating system, meaning even if you don’t have the app installed you can opt-in later and have the data available.

Usability: The NHS has a poor track record in IT projects, it’s likely the custom-designed app won’t work particularly well at first. Many people could just lose faith and give up, rendering the whole project useless.



The Government claims a centralised system is necessary for data about the outbreak, however it would still be possible to gather anonymised data from a decentralised app. Matthew Lesh of the Adam Smith Institute tells Guido:

"If a contact tracing app is going to work it must be downloaded by the clear majority of people. An app that unnecessarily centralises data, is clunky to use and drains your battery is unlikely to be particularly appealing. We need to change to a decentralised approach before it’s too late. Lives are on the line.”

It’s not too late"



Update: it's actually worse: we were told three weeks ago on UnHerd that the phone has to be unlocked for the NHS app to work and if any other app is running in the foreground the NHS app won't work, d'oh. And today: [The Register] UK finds itself almost alone with centralized virus contact-tracing; plus we all should have known at least two weeks ago app... 

Ominous observations: oulier obit?...

---

Copied and pasted from Guido with no further comment [edit: except the update]:  

"10 Problems With The NHS's New Coronavirus App:"

"The NHS has bizarrely rejected the decentralised, secure and intelligently designed Apple-Google contact tracing framework in favour of a centralised approach. The decentralised approach is being taken by Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Estonia, Spain, and Ireland. It means all recent contacts will be anonymously, securely stored on your device and never centrally accessible. Guido has compiled some of the disastrous consequences the UK’s nationalised centralised NHS approach will have:

Privacy: There will be a centralised database of recent contacts of those who are infected. They claim it will be anonymised – we all know meta-data interrelates and could be connected to individuals, creating a huge honey pot for hackers.
Self-reporting: The app will work from self-reported symptoms, rather than based on a test result. This opens it to misuse by people who don’t want to go to work or kids who want to skip class.
Travel and visitors: The UK’s app won’t work when you travel overseas, unlike the decentralised apps that work together. Foreigners’ apps won’t work in the UK.  
Northern Irish border: Ireland is using a decentralised app, which won’t interact with the UK’s centralised app, raising practical issues on the border.
Battery: The Apple-Google framework will always run in the background limiting battery usage. People could just switch off the UK’s app if they think it’s draining battery.
Legal: The proposal could break privacy laws by unnecessarily infringing on privacy, leaving it stuck in courts.
Mission creep: There is no law to prevent the Government from repurposing the app on your phone or the data they have for other purposes. It risks being misused and expanded in future.
Background: The app won’t be able to run fully in the background on iPhones or newer Androids because they aren’t using the Apple-Google framework. If two locked devices cross paths they won’t be able to send out a signal, they can only receive a signal from an unlocked device.
Non-app users: Apple and Google are planning to build their framework into the operating system, meaning even if you don’t have the app installed you can opt-in later and have the data available.
Usability: The NHS has a poor track record in IT projects, it’s likely the custom-designed app won’t work particularly well at first. Many people could just lose faith and give up, rendering the whole project useless.

The Government claims a centralised system is necessary for data about the outbreak, however it would still be possible to gather anonymised data from a decentralised app. Matthew Lesh of the Adam Smith Institute tells Guido:

"If a contact tracing app is going to work it must be downloaded by the clear majority of people. An app that unnecessarily centralises data, is clunky to use and drains your battery is unlikely to be particularly appealing. We need to change to a decentralised approach before it’s too late. Lives are on the line.”

It’s not too late"

Update: it's actually worse: we were told three weeks ago on UnHerd that the phone has to be unlocked for the NHS app to work and if any other app is running in the foreground the NHS app won't work, d'oh. And today: [The Register] UK finds itself almost alone with centralized virus contact-tracing; plus we all should have known at least two weeks ago app... 

Oracle of Omaha options...

---

I haven't mentioned the Oracle of Omaha for almost 14 years; Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett said [edit: he said yesterday] "that the conglomerate has sold the entirety of its position in the U.S. airline industry." This bodes badly for all airlines. From CNBC, "I think there are certain industries, and unfortunately, I think that the airline industry, among others, that are really hurt by a forced shutdown by events that are far beyond our control,"



No kidding. Warren Buffett in March: "I won’t be selling airline stocks"... 50 days is a long time. To put that in perespective, last December BH Inc owned a 10% stake in American Airlines, 9.2% of Delta shares, 10.1% of Southwest Airlines shares and 7.6% of United. Needless to say the COVID-19 pandemic is the airline industry's worst-ever crisis, them and a few others!

Oracle of Omaha options...

---

I haven't mentioned the Oracle of Omaha for almost 14 years; Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett said [edit: he said yesterday] "that the conglomerate has sold the entirety of its position in the U.S. airline industry." This bodes badly for all airlines. From CNBC, "I think there are certain industries, and unfortunately, I think that the airline industry, among others, that are really hurt by a forced shutdown by events that are far beyond our control,"

No kidding. Warren Buffett in March: "I won’t be selling airline stocks"... 50 days is a long time. To put that in perespective, last December BH Inc owned a 10% stake in American Airlines, 9.2% of Delta shares, 10.1% of Southwest Airlines shares and 7.6% of United. Needless to say the COVID-19 pandemic is the airline industry's worst-ever crisis, them and a few others!